Blog
October 23, 2024
The public’s confidence in the peaceful transfer of power has increased, although one-third still have doubts
As Election Day approaches, much attention has been paid to the difficult events that occurred during the post-election period four years ago. However, confidence that the upcoming presidential election will lead to a peaceful transfer of power has increased dramatically over the past six months.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, the public overwhelmingly sees such a transition as a key part of democracy and wants all candidates—regardless of the outcome—to support the winner.
| 2024 survey Do you agree that there will be a peaceful transition of power to the newly elected president?1 | ||||||
| March | Sept | |||||
| | Agree | Disagree | Don’t know | Agree | Disagree | Don’t know/skipped question |
| Overall | 49% | 42% | 9% | 66% | 32% | 2% |
| Dem | 50% | 42% | 9% | 65% | 33% | 2% |
| Rep | 48% | 42% | 10% | 70% | 28% | 2% |
| Ind | 50% | 41% | 10% | 63% | 35% | 2% |
According to the new September survey, 66% of the country says they agree a peaceful transfer of power will occur, up 17 points from March when 49% agreed. The survey was conducted before Republican nominee Donald Trump’s recent interview where he refused to commit to a peaceful transfer or power.
The increase in confidence can be seen across the political spectrum, although the biggest jump came among Republicans. Seven-in-ten Republicans now say they expect a peaceful transfer of power, an increase of 22 points from March. Among Democrats, there was a 15-point increase and a 13-point increase among independents.
The newest results came from questions of 1,000 U.S. adults funded by the Partnership for Public Service included in an AmeriSpeak® Omnibus survey, a probability-based panel operated by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago.
The reasons for such an increase are not obvious. The change in the Democratic nominee from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris may have contributed to how some voters envision the election outcome. The subject was included in the September presidential debate and some news media have covered the importance of the transition process. Preparations by Congress and security measures taken by federal agencies to prevent a repeat of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection may be a contributing factor. And legal changes to the Presidential Transition Act as a result of the 2020 turmoil may have become better understood by the public as we get closer to the election.
Despite the encouraging sign for the continuation of one of the United States’ great democratic traditions, 32% of the public does not have confidence such a transition will be peaceful—a 10-point decrease from March. This means there is still a sizable portion of the public doubtful such a transition will occur.
Transitions and democracy
Partnership surveys have shown consistently that effective and peaceful transitions are supported by the public. In the latest survey, at least 90% of the country say a peaceful transfer is important to a strong democracy, that cooperation between incoming and administrations is crucial and that federal civil servants play a key role in supportive effective transitions.
| Americans see cooperation between administrations as an important part of democracy2 | |
| % who said important | |
| How important is a peaceful transition of power to a strong democracy? | 92% |
| How important is cooperation between an incoming president, an outgoing president and federal agencies to a strong democracy? | 90% |
| How important are federal civil servants in supporting effective presidential transitions | 90% |
Furthermore, the public wants their leaders to support a peaceful transfer regardless of the outcome. More than 90% say that presidential candidates should ensure government services like Medicare and Social Security “continue without interruption” and that candidates should support the peaceful transfer of power.
| How important is it for a presidential candidate to take each action after the 2024 election?3 | |
| % who said important | |
| Ensure government services continue without interruption | 92% |
| Support peaceful transfer of power | 91% |
| Represent interests of people who did not vote for them | 83% |
| Support person taking office regardless of party | 81% |
More than 80% say it is important for candidates to represent the interests of people who did not vote for them and that candidates should support the person taking office in January 2025 regardless of party.
The desire of the public is clear. They want cooperation between outgoing and incoming presidential administrations and understand how that plays into a healthy, strong democracy. Even though there has been an increase in confidence that such a transition will occur, about one-third of the country expresses serious doubts. Political leaders should take a cue from the public, support the important American tradition and work to make the upcoming transition effective and peaceful, regardless of how the election turns out.
- Source: Partnership for Public Service surveys. The March 2024 survey included 800 U.S. adults. The Sept. 2024 survey included 1,000 U.S. adults. The question wording changed slightly to reflect the status of the presidential race at the time. Numbers may not add up to 100 due to rounding. ↩︎
- Source: Partnership for Public Service Sept. 2024 survey of 1,000 U.S. adults ↩︎
- Source: Partnership for Public Service Sept. 2024 survey of 1,000 U.S. adults. ↩︎
Related
What is the presidential transition process?
Presidential appointments are hard to track – and growing
