Confirming the Cabinet: Historical Trends of Cabinet Secretary Confirmations Across the Last Five Presidential Administrations 

The president’s Cabinet secretaries are among the most important and public-facing leaders within any administration. Unlike White House staff members who can be appointed unilaterally by the president, Cabinet secretaries must go through the Senate confirmation process.  

President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet secretary nominees began their confirmation hearings this week. 

To understand historical precedents and how Trump’s pace through the process compares with his predecessors, we examined trends across the last five presidential administrations. Three key themes emerge from this analysis: 

• Trump has set a historic pace in naming his initial slate of candidates for Cabinet secretary positions. By the time he named a nominee for each Cabinet department, his most recent predecessors had named just two or fewer nominees. 

• So far, the Senate has scheduled Trump’s nominees for confirmation hearings at a pace on par with Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and at a rate faster than President Joe Biden.  

• Confirmation of the Cabinet secretaries was much slower for Biden and Trump than for George W. Bush or Barack Obama during their first terms. This is in part due to increased procedural hurdles faced by the nominees to reach confirmation.  

Announcements 

Trump made personnel announcements at a historic pace in the days following his electoral victory. This was particularly true for Cabinet secretary positions. Trump named all 15 Cabinet secretary nominees before Obama or George W. Bush had named one.   

Biden, Trump 1 and Obama all roughly kept pace with each other in naming Cabinet secretaries. However, Biden and Trump 1 took longer to announce their last two to three secretaries. Biden did not make his final announcement until Jan.7, while Trump made his on Jan.18 of his first term. This is approximately 50 days later than Trump made his most recent announcements. 

George W. Bush was delayed due to the lengthy determination of his 2000 election victory. He named his first Cabinet secretary three days after Vice President Al Gore conceded and he named his entire Cabinet within 17 days of his first announcement, only six days shy of the pace set by Trump last year. 

Speed is not the only important metric, however. Transition teams typically conduct comprehensive vetting on prospective nominees, including requiring financial disclosure paperwork and FBI background investigations, before making public announcements. This prevents embarrassment for both nominees and presidents-elect. Historically, presidents tend to have at least one Cabinet secretary nominee that decides to withdraw from the process after increased vetting by the press or the Senate. Biden stood out in this regard as none of his nominees withdrew.  

President Trump’s transition team was three months late in starting the background investigation process with the Department of Justice. Presidential candidates typically sign a first agreement with DOJ in early September of an election year to initiate clearances for agency review team members, and another agreement after the election that focuses on background investigations for nominees. The Trump team did not sign an agreement with DOJ until December 3.  Consequently, background checks were not complete for Trump’s nominees before their announcement and three Senate confirmation hearings have been delayed so far while the committees of jurisdiction wait to receive the results of the background check and other relevant paperwork. 

Confirmation Hearings 

Once nominations are made and a new Senate session begins, the next step in the process is for nominees to undergo additional vetting, background checks and paperwork before the relevant committees of jurisdiction schedule formal confirmation hearings. Traditionally, a new Congress convenes around Jan. 3, with confirmation hearings for nominees starting in the week or two after the commencement of the new session. 

Trump in his first term and George W. Bush had the most hearings prior to Inauguration Day with 12 hearings. They were followed closely by Obama with 11 nominee hearings before Jan.20. 

Currently, Trump is about on pace with his predecessors, as nine confirmation hearings have been scheduled in the week prior to his inauguration. One has been scheduled for the day after the inauguration and the remaining five will likely be scheduled after Trump is sworn in.  

The time it takes presidents to get a hearing for each Cabinet secretary nominee has varied significantly, in part due to differences in the number of nominees that dropped out of the process.  Obama’s nominees took the longest, with hearings finishing in late March. He had three announced candidates withdraw during this period.   

Biden stands out from his contemporaries. Despite making announcements about as quickly as Trump and George W. Bush during their first terms, and having none of his announced candidates withdraw, Biden’s nominees did not complete hearings until Feb. 23. Contributing factors included Trump’s refusal to acknowledge the 2020 election results, the Jan. 5 Georgia Senate run-off election, difficulties negotiating and navigating a power sharing agreement in an evenly divided Senate and the second Trump impeachment trial.  

Confirmations 

After nominees have had their hearings, Senate committees will vote on whether to move the nominations to the Senate executive calendar. At this point, the Senate can initiate a final vote on a Cabinet secretary nominee. 

George W. Bush and Obama had a high level of success in getting their nominees confirmed in the early days of their administrations. Bush had seven nominees confirmed on Inauguration Day, while Obama had six.  By Feb.1, Bush had his entire Cabinet confirmed. Obama had 11 confirmed by Feb. 2, but then hit a stalemate, largely due to candidate withdrawals.  

Biden and Trump 1 faced a slower rate of confirmations. By Feb. 1, Biden and Trump 1 only had three and four Cabinet secretaries confirmed, respectively. It took more than two months for all of Biden’s Cabinet secretaries to be confirmed. Trump’s initial slate of nominees who did not withdraw took over three months to be confirmed. 

Biden’s and Trump’s nominees waited an average of 21and 27 days between their hearings and confirmation, respectively. The delays in part resulted from increased procedural barriers placed on their nominees. Unlike their predecessors, most of Biden’s and Trump’s nominees had to go through the cloture process and every nominee required a recorded final vote in order to be confirmed. The new Senate majority will have to devote more floor time for Trump’s nominees to be confirmed at a quicker pace than his first term or Biden’s term. 

Conclusion 

The historical trends show that it is very difficult for any incoming president to get Cabinet nominee confirmed within the first weeks of a new administration. Since Obama, the earliest filling of all Cabinet secretaries was March 22 by Biden. Trump’s success in getting his Cabinet secretaries confirmed expeditiously will help his administration hit the ground running and begin to carry out its priorities. This will require the timely submission of paperwork by his nominees and precious time on the Senate floor.